Now, they must work to defend these seats. ![]() This lopsided map is explained by the 20 election cycles owing to the then-faltering Iraq war and President Obama’s reelection, Democrats were able to make huge inroads in Republican leaning-states those years. Ten of these Democratic incumbents are running in states won by Donald Trump only one Republican candidate, Dean Heller of Nevada, represents a state won by Hillary Clinton. Of the thirty-five senate seats on the ballot (one-third of the Senate is elected every two years), a whopping twenty-six are held by Democrats. Across the country, Democratic senators are on the defensive. The Democrats’ agenda remains a loose amalgamation of ideas, at best-sufficiently vague to allow persuadable voters of varying stripes to project their own ideals onto the party. The Republican effort to tag Democrats as the party of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a deeply unpopular figure across the country, has been only partially successful in reminding conservatives of why they voted for Donald Trump. But over the past two years, by defining themselves in opposition to the president, the Democrats have massively outraised Republicans and built a consistent enthusiasm lead on the generic ballot. In the case of Donald Trump, loathed by progressives and liberals alike, this is especially true. Historically, opposition parties have performed well in midterm elections for the simple reason that they enjoy a clearly discernible target: the president. Better to go out as powerful committee chairmen, so their thinking, than languish in the minority. The proof is in the pudding: with only a 23-seat majority at present, several Republicans have announced over the past year that they will retire at the end of their terms. ![]() Worse, when the president’s approval ratings have dipped below 50 percent, his party has generally lost two dozen seats or more. Since the end of the Civil War, the president’s party has lost seats in 35 of 38 midterm elections. How to explain the discrepancy? For one, Republicans face strong historical headwinds. Institutionen erleiden drastische VertrauensverlusteĪnd yet, by consensus, the Democratic party is poised to retake the majority in the U.S.
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